…the CBN expects petrol prices to stabilise around ₦950 per litre in 2026.
ABUJA, NIGERIA- The iNews Times | The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could climb to about ₦950 per litre in 2026.
The projection is contained in the CBN 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, which outlines key assumptions shaping its forecast for fuel pricing and broader economic performance.
At present, petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery sells at an ex-depot price of ₦699 per litre, while consumers purchase the product at ₦739 per litre at MRS Oil outlets, the refinery’s authorised retail partner.
According to the CBN, its outlook is anchored on an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026, alongside exchange rate assumptions of ₦1,451.63 to the dollar by the fourth quarter of 2025 and ₦1,400 to the dollar in 2026. The bank attributed these expectations to enhanced efficiency in the foreign exchange market, increased capital inflows, and a projected current account surplus.
The apex bank also assumed steady domestic crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period.
Based on these conditions, the CBN expects petrol prices to stabilise around ₦950 per litre in 2026. It noted that rising private-sector investment, particularly in local refining, would support economic growth and help moderate energy costs. The bank further highlighted that improved security around oil infrastructure, higher crude output, and expanding refining capacity are expected to strengthen fuel supply in the coming year.
In its inflation outlook, the CBN projected a sharp moderation in headline inflation to 12.94 per cent in 2026, compared with an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025. The anticipated slowdown was linked to easing food prices and reduced pressure from PMS costs, driven largely by increased competition within the midstream petroleum sector.
Earlier, petroleumprice.ng reported that petrol prices hovered around ₦900 per litre or higher in many parts of the country before December. Prices declined after the Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot rate from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre and enforced a ₦739 pump price through MRS Oil outlets. Following the adjustment, competing fuel stations also lowered their prices to remain competitive.
However, the Dangote Refinery has cautioned that petrol prices could surge to as high as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria reverts to heavy dependence on imported fuel. The refinery noted that large-scale domestic production has played a key role in stabilising the downstream market and curbing price volatility.
