…according to him, Jonathan’s possible return may weaken the Obi-Kwankwaso calculations by splitting opposition interests.
ABUJA, NIGERIA- The iNews Times| Fresh political realignments ahead of the 2027 presidential election have intensified following the decision by Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso (Obi-Kwankwaso) to work together on a new political platform, a development analysts say could challenge the existing North-South political structure led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
The emerging Obi-Kwankwaso alliance, built around ongoing coalition discussions and their movement toward the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), has already generated widespread attention within both ruling and opposition political circles.
Political analysts believe the significance of the alliance lies in the possibility of combining Obi’s strong support base across parts of Southern Nigeria and among urban youths with Kwankwaso’s entrenched grassroots influence in Kano and several Northern states through the Kwankwasiyya movement.
Observers also argue that religion may become a major factor shaping the evolving political alignments ahead of the election.
According to analysts, the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in 2023 was largely built around a Muslim-Muslim arrangement aimed at consolidating support across predominantly Muslim northern states.
However, the emerging Obi-Kwankwaso coalition is now being viewed in some political circles as a possible Christian-Muslim ticket designed to broaden national appeal and counterbalance the electoral formula previously deployed by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Although coalition discussions within the opposition have circulated for months, recent developments involving both political figures have pushed the debate beyond routine defections into broader national conversations about electoral power, regional balancing, and the future of opposition politics in Nigeria.
Analysts say that if successfully consolidated, the coalition could challenge the long-standing dominance of both the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by creating an alternative political force capable of reshaping voting patterns ahead of 2027.
Despite the growing attention surrounding the alliance, political observers note that the APC still enjoys the advantages of incumbency, nationwide party structures, and institutional influence across much of the country.
They also warn that beyond public enthusiasm, the Obi-Kwankwaso alliance could eventually face internal challenges surrounding power-sharing arrangements, party structure, regional interests, and possible disagreements over presidential and vice-presidential positions.
However, analysts maintain that a coordinated Obi-Kwankwaso movement could still significantly influence political conversations if expanded into a broader coalition capable of attracting dissatisfied voters across regional and party lines.
The unfolding movement has already triggered reactions from both the ruling establishment and opposition actors, reflecting growing concern over the implications of a united opposition front ahead of the election.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) dismissed claims that the reported exits of Obi and Kwankwaso came as a surprise, insisting both politicians had long planned to leave the platform despite ongoing consultations within the party.
ADC National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, described the developments as “pre-planned,” arguing that the internal litigations cited by both camps were insufficient reasons to abandon the coalition project.
The APC also moved quickly to downplay the emerging alliance. Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga reportedly described Obi as a “political nomad,” accusing opposition figures of pursuing personal ambition rather than ideological unity.
Similarly, Senate President Godswill Akpabio reportedly mocked the ADC following the development, while FCT Minister Nyesom Wike accused Obi of constantly moving between political platforms in search of political opportunities.
Speaking during a media interaction in Abuja, Wike argued that genuine political leadership involves resolving internal party crises rather than abandoning political structures during disputes.
However, Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, adopted a different tone while reacting to Obi’s reported movement toward the NDC.
In a post on X, Keyamo defended Obi’s decision to leave the ADC, arguing that the former Anambra governor simply moved toward a platform that better appreciated his political value and ambitions.
“The beautiful woman, who knows her worth, has no time to waste waiting for this bachelor and walks away quietly to another suitor who knows her worth,” Keyamo wrote.
The growing debate also attracted criticism from PDP chieftain Segun Showunmi, who argued during a television interview that the real presidential contest in 2027 would still revolve around President Tinubu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
Showunmi questioned Obi’s national leadership capacity, particularly in security and governance, insisting there was insufficient evidence that the former Anambra governor possesses the experience required to govern Nigeria.
Adding an academic perspective, Christian Okeke stated that the Obi-Kwankwaso alignment was already producing political reactions across the country despite remaining in its early stages.
“Definitely, Obi-Kwankwaso’s alignment will reshape the voting pattern and is already sending political shock waves,” he said.
“The alignment has produced rapid impact within this short period, and the wave will become deeper in the coming days.”
According to Okeke, the 2027 election may ultimately become a referendum on the performance of the current administration.
“More interesting times lie ahead, and the 2027 election will definitely be a vote on the government of the day,” he added.
Political analyst Damian Godwin also suggested that mounting calls for former President Goodluck Jonathan to join the presidential race could significantly reshape the opposition landscape.
According to him, Jonathan’s possible return may weaken the Obi-Kwankwaso calculations by splitting opposition interests and altering voter alignments ahead of 2027.
“Jonathan’s emergence may likely alter the political equation completely, making Obi-Kwankwaso’s ambition vulnerable,” he said.
Observers say the unfolding opposition calculations mirror the early coalition talks that eventually produced the APC merger in 2013 — the political alliance that ended the PDP’s 16-year rule at the federal level.
While questions remain over competing ambitions, ideological differences, and power-sharing negotiations within the opposition camp, the Obi-Kwankwaso movement has already intensified political calculations ahead of the next presidential election.
Whether the alliance survives its internal contradictions or matures into a formidable national coalition, its emergence has undoubtedly injected fresh uncertainty and excitement into Nigeria’s evolving 2027 political landscape.
