…says the Iran US Israel war scenario could quickly impact the country through oil markets.
ABUJA, NIGERIA — The iNews Times | A rights activist, Okechukwu Nwanguma, has cautioned the Federal Government against adopting what he described as “fear-driven securitization” in responding to protests linked to the escalating Iran US Israel war, urging authorities to embrace rights-based early warning governance instead.
His warning follows protests reportedly staged in parts of Northern Nigeria by members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), also known as Shi’ites, over the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike and the subsequent exchange of attacks between the countries.
Reports indicated that demonstrations occurred in Gombe, Niger, Kano, Bauchi, Yobe and Sokoto states, prompting the Nigeria Police Force to direct Commissioners of Police across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to heighten surveillance nationwide.
Shi’ite groups in Nigeria share religious and ideological ties with Iran, which is widely regarded as a symbolic and spiritual hub of Shi’a Islam.
‘Global Escalation Will Not Stay in the Middle East’
Reacting to the unfolding crisis, Nwanguma warned that a major escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran would not remain confined to the Middle East, stressing that the ripple effects of the Iran US Israel war scenario could quickly impact the country through oil markets, digital narratives, diplomatic alignments and domestic identity politics.
“In crisis moments, security agencies often widen surveillance. If Shia communities are framed through a geopolitical lens rather than as Nigerian citizens with constitutional rights, this could deepen alienation, trigger protest cycles, invite international scrutiny and undermine civic trust,” he said.
He noted that while disruptions in the Gulf could push oil prices higher, potentially increasing Nigeria’s short-term revenue, such windfalls historically do not automatically translate into economic stability.
“Fuel import dependence, inflationary pressure and food supply disruptions could deepen public hardship,” he added.
Social Media Narratives Raise Fresh Concerns
The activist also expressed concern over social media narratives that have allegedly framed the Iran US Israel War along religious lines within Nigeria, warning that outrage-driven and sectarian content could inflame tensions between Christian and Muslim communities.
He cautioned that broad restrictions on speech, rather than targeted action against incitement, could shrink civic space and push discourse underground.
“History shows that securitizing identity issues breeds radicalization,” Nwanguma stated.
Call for Early Warning Governance, Not Crackdown
Instead of a crackdown model, he advocated what he termed a sensitivity framework, including:
- Establishment of a multi-agency early warning desk
- Refraining from collective suspicion
- Proactive engagement with religious leaders
- Protection of peaceful protest rights
- Economic buffer planning to stabilize fuel pricing and preempt inflation spikes
He also called for strengthened civil-security dialogue platforms and warned against mass arrests without individualized evidence, the misuse of counterterrorism labels for political containment, militarized policing of religious events, or suppression of the media.
“Nigeria can respond to global shockwaves in one of two ways, fear-driven securitization, which may temporarily suppress dissent but deepen long-term instability, or rights-based early warning governance, which strengthens institutional legitimacy while managing risk,” he said.
“Security and human rights are not competing values. In fragile contexts, they are mutually reinforcing pillars of stability. The test is not whether Nigeria can control its citizens. It is whether it can govern with foresight, restraint and constitutional fidelity in a volatile world.”
